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Scottie Predicts (Memorial Day Weekend)
Rank Name Prediction (4-day) % Change
1  Kung Fu Panda 2  80.4m   new
2  The Hangover Part II  56.0m    new
3  Pirates of the Carribean 4  45.1m    -50%
4  Bridesmaids  17.6m    -16%
5  Thor  9.0m    -42%
6  Fast Five  6.4m    -40%
7  Rio  2.6m    -45%
8  Jumping the Broom  2.1m    -43%
9  Something Borrowed  2.0m    -43%
10  Priest  1.6m    -66%

 

 

  • Whoa.  What happened here.  Oh yeah, I am supposed to be writing an article on my weekend Predictions.  The Po hopes to kick some butt before he gets a Hangover in Bangkok.  Ow, my head hurts.
  • Kung Fu Panda 2 will fight it's way in over 3900 theaters (final figures for theater counts were not available at the time my predictions were made).  Whatever it does today, it will be more backloaded than most Thursday openers.  As with most animated sequels, I expect this one to get a 3-day pta in the 16k range, and with the extra Monday, it should just hit 80 million for 4-day set, and about 90 million plus for the first 5 days.

    The cast of Hangover is back, in a sequel that is basically the same film but in a different setting.  Now get drunk in Bangkok, where they see a smoking monkey, and a Giant Panda doing Kung Fu, okay, maybe not that, but they will get drunk in 3615 theaters.  Opening day is going to be big based on midnight and early reports.  This may lead to a very frontloaded performance for the weekend.  I expect a very explosive opening, maybe in the 20 million range, than followed by a big drop on Friday, and another slight drop on Saturday.  Whatever Thursday gets, I expect Friday to drop to the High Teens, followed by an IM barely over 3 for the 4-day set, giving it a prediction lower than what most people are saying.  Just being a bit conservative here, but.....ow, my head is really hurting from last night.  Maybe I should sign off here and go back to bed, before I get chased by Mike Tyson's Tiger again.

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    Total Comments: 1
    Karl Schneider
    Karl Schneider    May 27 2011 10:22am
    Enjoy the thought out analysis as to why you're predicting Hangover lower, helps me follow along, heh.