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Crux Predicts (May 6 - 8)
Rank Name Prediction
1  Thor 70.0
2  Fast Five 34.4
3  Jumping the Broom 10.5
4  Something Borrowed 9.6
5  Rio 8.4
6  Water For Elephants 6.0
7  Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family  4.1
8  Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil  2.4
9  Prom 2.3
10  Soul Surfer 2.0

Prediction above for span between 5/6/2011 and 5/8/2011


Summer Box Office got underway last weekend with the monstrous opening of Fast Five and this weekend will pack another punch with Marvel’s Thor leading the pack.  Thor is trending very well on Twitter and has an 81% Fresh Score on RT.  It is also opening in 3,955 theaters which out numbers Fast Five by almost 400 theaters.  Even will all that I still can’t see Thor’s opening quite hitting the Fast Five’s 86 million.  It’s not quite as “known” as some of the other more popular comics and it will still have to deal with some of the residual Fast Five “traffic”.  All in all, Thor will dominate this weekend.

The other two new movies being released this weekend, Jumping the Broom and Something Borrowed, are nothing more than mediocre rom-com’s with nothing out of the ordinary and no huge stars to draw the crowds.  These two wet rags will go toe to toe and end up both pulling in right around 10 million apiece.

Fast Five will show a significant drop in the 60% range because of the inflated OW numbers.  Even with a drop of 60% it will still easily take the number 2 spot for the weekend and will out-gross the combined earnings of two lame duck rom-com’s.

Rio, even in its 4th week, will hold strong as we’ve seen decent numbers for many children’s movies this year namely Gnomeo & Juliet and Rango.  Another reason for the good hold this week is due to lack of competition in its category.  NO, Hoodwinked Too! is no competition for Rio.  If anything it is competing with Mars Needs Moms for worst grossing children’s movie.

Crux out.

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Total Comments: 1
Crux    May 6 2011 6:39pm
Thor brought in 3.3 million from the midnight showings. Not bad. Just as a comparison Fast Five brought in 3.7 million.