Register  |  Sign In
Scottie Predicts (April 29 - May 1)
Rank Name Prediction Theater Count % Change
1  Fast 5  75.0  3643  new
2  Rio  15.8  3708  -40%
3  Prom  12.6  2730  new
4  Madea's Big Happy Family  10.0  2228  -60%
5  Water for Elephants  9.2  2820  -45%
6  Hoodwinked 2  7.0  2505  new
7  Hop  3.4  3170  -72%
8  Soul Surfer  3.2  2010  -42%
9  Insidious  2.7  1584  -48%
10  Scream 4  2.6  2221  -63%

It's only April, but according to Hollywood, it's summer time.  That's right, summer starts a week early this year fast and furiously.

Hold on tight, cause this weeks big opener will driving Fast and Furiously in 3643 houses.  The buzz for this 5th installment has been nothing short of impressive, and the marketing has been in full gear since the beginning of the year.  Screen allocations, IMAX Screens, and surprisingly great reviews can't hurt either.  The per theater average should be a bit higher than the last one, although due to the high IMAX count, this will spoil the grosses of the regular formats, so the grosses can't go much higher than the last one.  Still, a 20k pta is nothing to complain about.

In midst of this hoopla, Disney hopes that some teens not interesting in fast driving may want to go the Prom, which will take place in 2730 houses.  Reviews are pretty much what you expect from this genre, and the generic title does not help either.  The buzz is pretty average, along with allocations and marketing.  Finding family audiences will not be too easy either since it still has Rio to compete with.  Still, the Disney brand will help sell this film, to the tune of a mid 4.5k pta.

Like Prom, Hoodwinked will 2 have a bit of a struggle with family audiences, as Red Riding Hood will have to compete with the Macaws, especially one who is voiced by the original voice of Red.  Despite the addition of Hansel and Gretel and 3D, there was no reason why a sequel had to be made.  The polls and buzz are similar Alpha and Omega, therefore, the grosses should be similar.  Going over the meadow and through the woods to 2505 houses she goes, she should go back to the book where she belongs.

As for holdovers, Rio will drop a bit more due to an inflated Friday, but competition isn't too fierce.  Madea will drop a bit bigger than previous installments due to more competition.  If not for a big opener, Water for Elephants could have held on better.  With the Easter holiday over, Hop should see a exceptionally large drop, just like Passion of the Christ did 7 years ago.  With a big title in the mix and the fact that last Friday was inflated, Soul Surfer, Insidious, and a couple below the top ten (Hanna and Source Code, both predicted at 2.5 million each) will drop significantly higher than last week, some even harsher due to theater losses.  African Cats will see a exceptionally harsh drop (2.5 million for a drop of 58%) due to Earth Day being last Friday.  Scream 4 will get hit the most among non family films cause the competition is the most direct of the bunch.  This is the Scottie signing out, feel free to comment below.

Login to Comment
Total Comments: 3
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Apr 29 2011 11:30am
Man, I had no idea Fast 5 was gonna be this big.
Patrick Ferrara
Patrick Ferrara    May 1 2011 7:26pm
$83.6 mil for the weekend, record-breaking for the franchise.
Patrick Ferrara
Patrick Ferrara    May 2 2011 12:44pm
So my mom saw Fast Five....and enjoyed it.