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Scottie Predicts (March 18 - 20)
Rank Name Prediction Theater Count % Change
1  Battle Los Angeles  $15.7m  3417 -56%
2  Rango  $15.4m  3843  -32%
3  Limitless  $13.8m  2756  n/a
4  Paul  $12.6m  2801  n/a
5  The Lincoln Lawyer  $12.2m  2707  n/a
6  The Adjustment Bureau  $6.3m  2655  -46%
7  Red Riding Hood  $6.2m  3030  -56%
8  Mars Needs Moms  $4.6m  3117  -33%
9  Hall Pass  $2.7m  1905  -46%
10  Beastly  $2.6m  1810  -48%

Prediction above for span between 3/18//2011 and 3/20/2011

Two movies that start with an L and one that ends with an L will try to battle the L in LA for the top spot.

Among the openers, Limitless should make the most De Niros.  Opening in 2756 theaters, it used the Superbowl to bring awareness with it's somewhat effective trailer.  It may not stand out because not only does it open against films with similar demographics, it also has March Madness to deal with.  Still, with decent reviews and good awareness, it should still open with a PTA of $5k.

Also launching this weekend is Paul.  He will invade 2801 houses this weekend.  Just like Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead, this film will try to bring in it's niche audience, although comic con and Seth Rogen attempt to make this more mainstreamed.  Because of the bigger theater count, the PTA will not be as high.  And with overlap with the other two openers with the demographics, it will have a tough time standing out.  Although being the only comedy helps of the bunch helps a lot, since the biggest one right now is Hall Pass.  The per theater average should be in the mid $4k range cause it does have good theater allocations, and the dead bird scene in the trailer is pretty funny.

The Lincoln Lawyer will make it's case in 2756 courthouses today.  Being the only PG-13 opener helps, and it is based on a somewhat popular novel.  Although the generic premise will prevent it from standing out.  The groupon gimmick could either help or hurt this film, and based on the sales given out by Box Office Guru, it doesn't look to do anything outside the typical novel based thriller crowd.  Still, with good reviews, it should get a PTA in the mid $4k range.

Among Holdover, I was almost dead on with Battle Los Angeles last weekend.  The Saturday signified a rush factor, and that Wednesday drop it pretty harsh, so expect a 60%+ decline from Friday to Friday.  Rango proved that the mediocre WOM from opening day audiences did not matter, since it did not affect the sophomore gross (maybe the more intelligent crowd didn't see on it's opening Friday, when Cinemascore grades are polled).  With no new competitors, it will post even a more solid hold than last time around, and a legitimate contender for the top spot.  Adjustment Bureau see some direct, although only moderate range ones, competitors.  Still, the decline should be slightly higher than last time.  Red Riding Hood is again tough to predict, could the sophomore session could be all over the place.  With the rush factor and mediocre WOM, it should see a very harsh drop even harsher than Beastly.  Mars Needs Moms was one of the most over predicted films this year, and one of the biggest flops of all time.  With no new competitors this weekend, it should at least enjoy a moderately good decline.  Hall Pass loses theaters leading to a bigger drop.  Beastly should drop about the same as last time.

This is the Scottie signing out.  Feel free to comment below.

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Total Comments: 1
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Mar 18 2011 11:51am
Sad you don't think Limitless will do better, I actually think it looks fairly decent.