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Scottie Predicts (Oscar Weekend)
Rank Name Prediction Theater Count % Change
1  Hall Pass  $14.2m  2950 n/a 
2  Gnomeo and Juliet  $13.8m  3037  -28%
3  The Unknown  $12.3m  3043  -44%
4  Just Go With It  $11.1m  3544  -40%
5  Drive Angry  $9.4m  2290 n/a 
6  I Am Number Four  $8.9m  3156  -54%
7  Justin Bieber:  Never Say Never  $8.6m  2801  -35%
8  The King's Speech  $7.4m  2386  +14%
9  Big Momma's:  Like Father Like Son  $7.3m  2821  -55%
10  The Roommate  $1.9m  1726  -52%

Prediction above for span between 2/25//2011 and 2/27/2011

Well, last weekend finally broke the streak of weekends falling behind the same weekend last year.  Although it didn't top the previous President's Day Weekend's, it did top the matching weekend from last year, and that is what counts, to me at least.  This weekend to me seems to be on the quiet side, as the two openers only have modest expectations.

Owen Wilson and Jason Sudeikis will both receive Hall Passes to visit you in 2950 houses.  The Farrelly Brothers have had a shaky record recently, with Judd Aptow stealing the R-rated comedy thunder.  Polls for this are not much better than Hot Tub Time Machine, and trailers only look mildly amusing.  Reviews are mixed, with some top critics appreciating it more than others.  I don't a performance any different from Heartbreak Kid.  The pta should only be in the high $4k range, giving is only a Farrelly good opening weekend.

As for the other opener, Nicholas Cage will Drive Angry in 2290 theaters, most of which are in 3D.  Aside from being in 3D, this premise and marketing makes it no different from your generic action thriller.  Instead of the 3D being showcase, it is only used as a gimmick in this case, despite the fact that it was shot with a 3D camera, but the ads are not showcasing it.  Normally, a film like this sees the pta in the $3k range, but with the 3D, it will rise in the low $4k range.

For the Sophmores:  Unknown will not have Taken like legs, but rather a more normal drop for an Adult Thriller.  The Friday and Saturday drops will be in the low 40% range, but with the Oscars on Sunday, the Sunday drop will be a bit harsher.  I Am Number 4 is very frontloaded, and even giving it a generous 130% increase on Friday (since midweeks are higher than usual after Presidents day), the Sunday will hurt it's chances of dropping under 50%.  Big Momma's has very WOM, based on it's terrible grade from BOM, and other sources.  Giving a normal 200% Friday increase (following the pattern of other Urban films following the 4-day holiday), it too will suffer on Sunday to prevent a 50% drop.  Gnomeo has the families too itself for one last time.  The Friday and Saturday drops will be in the low 20% range, but a harsher Sunday makes the weekend decline harsher than it looks, but still nothing to cry about.  Just Go With It has a surprizingly good hold despite mixed WOM.  With an R-rated comedy opening, the Friday and Saturday declines should be slighty softer than last weekends, but the Sunday drop will hurt it, giving it a decline equal to last weekend.  Justin Bieber is a tricky one to predict once again.  With a new Director's Cut, will fans want to see it again.  It's very gimmicky at best, but it may bring in some die hards again, and being only one week, it should soften the decline for one last weekend.  Roommate will still fall the same as the previous weekend.  Finally, before the Producers make a speech on stage (assuming it goes according to plan), the King's will expand it's speech to 300 more theaters.  The per theater average should remain flat, which will boost the weekend gross by 14%.

Those of you people reading this, stay tuned for my annual Oscar game on the Oscar forum.  It is alot of fun, if a bit ridiculous to some.  Putting that shameless plug aside, this is the Scottie signing out.

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